My Vision

My "Vision"?? Look, man.  I have no expertise, and I sure as heck don't want to be the one leading a revolution.  I'm just some guy who posted a video on YouTube, and would like to go back to playing with my kids at some point.

I don't have all the answers.  But together, we might. So start here, with what I'm suggesting, and then join the discussion forums so that you can point out where I've gone wrong, give your own ideas, and hear others. Perhaps together we'll hammer together a decent future yet.
So here's what I would love to see happen over the next few months:
People will stop shouting (or ignoring the shouting) about global warming and instead use the risk management ideas I propose in my book and videos to look at the issue and decide for themselves "Given the risks and uncertainties, what seems like the best bet for safeguarding our future (or our children, or nation, or society, or economy, or civilization, or insert your own bottom-line-that-you-value-above-all-else)?" 
Once you've made a provisional decision on what the best bet is, then what do you do?

Column B-ers

For those who think the best bet is to not aggressively reduce carbon emissions, I hope they will start incorporating into their arguments the ideas about having a reasonable debate that I propose in What's the Worst That Could Happen?:

1. acknowledging that their assessment just might be wrong, so that it's worth talking about a Plan B,
2. acknowledging that everyone has confirmation bias, and start demonstrating what they're doing to guard agains
3. evaluating the credibility of sources on both sides,
4. balancing probabilities and consequences,
5. talking in terms of "risk assessment" and "human good", instead of just whether global warming is "true" (because science can never say for sure if it's "true" until we complete the global experiment we're running) and "the economy" (which, after all, is only a useful idea in as far as it brings about human good),
6. incorporating externalities--like the shared atmosphere, ocean, and climate--into their economic models, and
7. give an operational definition for what would prompt them to change their minds.

Column A-ers

What's my vision for people who decide that we should take significant action to reduce carbon emission ASAP?  I've written a whole chapter in the appendix of What's the Worst That Could Happen on how they can turn that conclusion into action. I included a a whole range of options--from the easy to the obsessive--so that no one is paralyzed by the trap of "letting perfect be the enemy of good": unable to give enough time to what they think should be done, they end up doing nothing at all.  (I'm an expert on that trap because I fall for it all the time.)

So if you already know you're motivated, buy the book to get the full game plan.  (Then join the discussion forums here and at www.manpollo.org to help evolve the game plan further.)  Here's the quick version:

If you think we should significantly reduce carbon emissions ASAP, then you do this:

1. Everything I suggested the Column B-ers do above.  (It's not only fair, but it also changes the debate, so that others stop ignoring it.)
2. Don't worry about "going green."  We've waited so long--and it's far later in the game than we thought--that individual lifestyle changes may feel good, and may save you money, but they aren't going to avoid a tipping point in the climate.  We need massive action, on a societal scale, faster than anything we've ever seen, expect for the economic mobilization of the U.S. at the start of WWII.  That only comes from policy changes, which only come from a wholesale change in the culture, which will only come in time if we spread the idea like an epidemic.  We need a culture where a policy maker can't turn around without having a crowd of their own constituents in their face saying "What are we--you!--going to do about climate change??"  But how does little-ole-you make that happen?  You launch a virus:
   1. Pick a meme [link]--a viral idea--to spread.  The point is to share a simple idea or question that doesn't require a campaign to push it, because it infects the people who hear it, recruiting them to the idea, and then THEY pass it on to others.  One person reaches ten, who each reach ten, who each reach ten, and so on.  In just 5 steps that's over 100,000 people who are reached!  Because of one person.  That's damn powerful.  I have several versions of memes that have come out of my work.  [link to another page]  Swipe one of mine, or change them as you like (just like a real virus--it mutates!).
      
   2. KEY POINT: Package your meme so that the last instruction it gives is "pass it on--and make sure you tell them to pass it on."
   3. Forget about any "going green" activities, and use that time and energy instead to spread the word.  Go ahead and drive to work instead of biking, and use the time saved to spread your meme.  Lots of specific ideas in the book.  I firmly believe you'll get more "bang for your buck" for every minute spent recruiting others rather than from fighting the battle directly.  Here's where the time commitment can be customized to your life.  It can be as quick as just forwarding my videos to friends and family, or as ambitious as you are inspired to reach.
   4. If you want to go further, join the discussion forums here and on manpollo.org to brainstorm ideas for even more effective (and fun!) ways to spread your message
3. Keep your eye on the prize: a social epidemic in time for the policy makers to get the message loud and clear ahead before the Copenhagen climate talks in December (where they agree on the next international emissions treaty).  That's our best chance to catch the train, since it's an event already designed to set policy.  If we miss that, then it just makes the threshold for action even harder to reach, because people will have to be motivated to not only set new policy, but to go back and re-do a new policy that had just been painfully negotiated. The rub is, we know the climate has tipping points, beyond which the change is self-perpetuating.  (It's happened in the past.) I just hope there's enough room before the cliff for a direction change.  Because no one knows where it is.  Just that we're getting closer to it, and still pushing down harder on the accelerator.

Get To It

So get going.  Whichever box of my grid we end up in, won't you feel silly if we ended up making a huge mistake (unnecessarily tanking our economy, or blithely wrecking our global life support system), and you realize you'd spent more time evaluating your Fantasy Football picks than this issue?  More effort in online conversations about the entertainment of the day than in asking people questions about climate change?

As Rosie the Rivetter told us, we can do it.

.